New, Systematic Way of Thinking about Uncertainty
An explanation of Scenario's Facilitation Tool in Futures thinking.
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* Recorded the whole interview/facilitation process
TIPS FOR OTHERS:
1. When starting a venture (or continuing) be sure to consider five general categories of forces and trends: social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that interact with one another to create complex and interesting scenarios
I brainstormed each of these in relation to what I recognized in my environment and specifically how they might link to opening a bookstore. Eg. I realized that the rise digital note taking might lead to lower demand for physical books as you can’t copy paste text. This is a good way to open your venture to new opportunities. There are many more insights – try it out and see.
2. I’d be happy to help anyone to try this
My personal benchmark for learning the skill of scenario planning is to be able to approach any endeavor eg. Opening a makerspace, planning for the next 6 months, or adapting to Corona and be able to provide another person/org something valuable and cohesive to help inform their strategy. I would be very happy to facilitate this for anyone. Please reach out (Navika.agrawal@gmail.com)
3. You can brainstorm your fears, wait a month, see what new trends are emerging in your life/world and how they connect to your fears. Things might be different to what they emotionally feel like.
4. Suggestion for Career Counsellors.
Below is the suggested career map created by 80,000 hours. A non- profit dedicated to helping people design their careers to have the most impact.
Here I quote directly from them (Section 7 of their Career Plan Template):
“Career decision making involves so much uncertainty that it’s easy to feel paralysed. Instead make hypotheses about which option is best, then identify key uncertainties: what information would change your best guess? …. Then investigate those key uncertainties. Start with the least costly ways to learn more (like reading online) and then take more expensive steps (doing a trial project) if you are still uncertain”
They say that the person needs to “investigate uncertainties” and reduce them. However, when you are planning for big impact you are dealing with large, powerful forces such as climate change, ai or others. It’s much better to be responsive to change and make best friends with uncertainty and catch unexpected opportunities rather than trying to reason your way to success.
Finally- my call to universities: This could be an amazing addition to career counselling. Typical career counselling does not involve listening so deeply. It could help students face the looming uncertainty of graduation and life after college with less fear and more excitement on what is uniquely important to them, and what they can create.